Universal Pictures’ latest addition to the Jurassic franchise, ‘Jurassic World Rebirth’, is projected to earn $28 million on its opening day this Wednesday, not factoring in Tuesday previews. This initial figure represents a solid start for the Independence Day holiday, slightly surpassing the $27.2 million opening day posted by Illumination/Universal’s ‘Despicable Me 4’ last year, which ultimately culminated in a three-day total of $75 million and a five-day total of $122.6 million.
As of now, projections suggest that the dinosaur-themed adventure, directed by Gareth Edwards at Amblin, will reach approximately $77.5 million over the three-day weekend and around $127.5 million for the five-day period. However, forecasts made directly from Wednesday openings can be unpredictable, particularly with July 4th landing on a Friday, a day that typically underperforms at the box office. The last occurrence of Independence Day on a Friday was in 2014, when most films in the top ten experienced a boost in their daily earnings, although the leading film at that time, ‘Transformers: Age of Extinction,’ actually saw a 28% decline from its money earned the previous day.
Within the Jurassic series, ‘Rebirth’ ranks as the fourth highest opening day, notably being only the second installment to debut on a Wednesday, the previous instance being ‘Jurassic World III’, which pulled in $19 million back in 2001. The top three opening days of the franchise remain 2015’s ‘Jurassic World’ at $81.9 million, 2022’s ‘Dominion’ at $59.5 million, and 2018’s ‘Fallen Kingdom’ at $58.5 million.
‘Jurassic World Rebirth’ is set to exhibit in 4,308 theaters, enhanced by premium large format screens. While there is no Rotten Tomatoes audience score available yet, reviews currently sit at 54% Rotten, an improvement compared to the 29% Rotten of ‘Dominion’.
Social media analytics from RelishMix indicate that ‘Rebirth’ has gained significant traction due to Universal’s social media outreach, amassing a staggering 921 million followers across platforms like TikTok, YouTube, Instagram, Facebook, and X, a figure that exceeds the typical engagement for action-adventure sci-fi by 206%. The movie’s viral repost rate on YouTube is reported at an impressive 26:1— further augmented by 219 million views on Facebook. Additionally, over 50 videos related to the film have been shared on YouTube. The standout star on social media is Jonathan Bailey, boasting 5.4 million followers on Instagram, while Scarlett Johansson and Mahershala Ali have remained less active online.
Notably, Universal has enjoyed a string of successful post-Covid Independence Day openings, including ‘F9’ in 2021 with a three-day total of $70 million, ‘Minions: The Rise of Gru’ in 2022, which garnered $123 million over four days, and last year’s ‘Despicable Me 4’, achieving $122.6 million over five days.
In parallel, Apple Original Films’ ‘F1’, released through Warner Bros, is estimated to rake in over $6 million today. The film featuring Brad Pitt previously earned $6.9 million on Monday and $8.6 million on discounted Tuesday, with a total cumulative gross projected to exceed $78 million by the end of the day.
